Before the war in Ukraine, cruises through the Baltic Sea had an essential stop in St. Petersburg, a tremendously monumental city that even required a night in port to be able to explore it in time.
Article from CruisesNews magazine no. 69 – June 2024
Most circular routes departed from Copenhagen or Kiel and stopped in Stockholm, Helsinki, St. Petersburg, and on the way back south, a stop in either Tallinn, Riga, Klaipeda or Gdansk, among other options.
Although the war in Ukraine is taking place 1,600 km south of St. Petersburg, for an American tourist, even approaching the Russian coast on the Baltic Sea is unthinkable. Thus, not only has St. Petersburg been canceled as a cruise ship stop, but the geographically closest cities have been seriously affected, and indeed the entire region.
Helsinki was experiencing meteoric growth before the pandemic, reaching 605,000 cruise passengers in 2019. A strong post-pandemic, but this was cut short by the start of the war in Ukraine, leaving it with only 162,000 cruise passengers. In 2023, despite receiving far fewer ships, it managed to maintain the figure at 163,000 passengers. This represents a 73% decrease in passengers.
Its neighbor Tallinn suffered the same fate, and from the 660,000 cruise passengers it received in 2019 it has gone to 172,000 in 2022 and 165,000 in 2023.
The eastern Baltic ports, the most affected
And the fact is, when we talk about North American cruise lines, the most popular ones hardly ever visit the area. Royal Caribbean, for example, only has one visit to Helsinki planned this year, Norwegian Cruise Line two, Princess Cruises three, and Celebrity Cruises another two.
The cruise lines that make the most calls in Helsinki are those that cater to German tourists. TUI Cruises leads with 10 calls, followed by Aida with another 10.
However, there are luxury North American cruise lines such as Oceania Cruises, Regent Seven Seas and Silversea Cruises, which maintain a reasonable number of port calls, possibly because their type of customer is not so easily frightened and understands that, although Helsinki is about 300 km by sea from St. Petersburg, the war and the risks are much further away.
With St. Petersburg, Helsinki, and Tallinn missing from the itineraries, the area of operations has shifted towards the west coast and the strait between Denmark, Sweden, and Norway (Kattegat Strait and Skagerrak Strait), incorporating into the routes ports such as Gothenburg, Oslo, and Kristiansand that were previously only served on routes exclusively to the Norwegian Fjords.
Kiel has managed to maintain and slightly increase its position as the leading homeport in the region, handling 834,000 passengers in 2023, a figure very similar to the 803,000 passengers in 2019, thanks to turnarounds in the German market. However, Copenhagen is trying to recover to pre-pandemic levels, having fallen from leading the region with 940,000 passengers in 2019 to 535,000 in 2022 and 752,000 in 2023. It expects similar figures in 2024 but aims for growth starting in 2025.
The other side of the coin can be seen in the Norwegian Fjords, Iceland, and the British Isles, which are breaking records year after year. The Norwegian Fjords have always been a desirable destination, but with this situation, Norwegian ports as a whole received 6.1 million passengers in 2023 (each passenger counts once in each port), 1.9 million more than in 2022.
Bergen and Ålesund are Norway's leading ports, with Bergen receiving more ships (358 in 2023) and 621,000 passengers, while Ålesund saw an increase in passengers (654,000 in 2023) due to the arrival of larger ships. The capital, Oslo, has seen an increase from 229,000 passengers in 2019 to 264,000 in 2023.
Kristiansand, the Norwegian port in the far south of the country, has gone from receiving only 88,000 passengers in 2019 to 199,000 in 2022 and 345,000 in 2023.
Halfway between the Baltic and Norway, Gothenburg (Sweden) had a record year in 2023, with 118,000 passengers, a figure slightly higher than in 2019, but in 2024, with fewer stopovers, it may not be able to maintain those numbers.
One factor to consider is that there appears to be a reduced deployment of ships in the area. While before the war some companies deployed one ship to the Baltic Sea and another to the Norwegian Fjords, now some cover the entire region with just one.
United Kingdom and Iceland, fashion destinations
Iceland and the British Isles are also benefiting from this situation. Although they were emerging destinations even before the pandemic, they have become alternatives to the Baltic. NCL was the first major cruise line to invest in Iceland, launching the Norwegian Prima there in 2022 and maintaining a regular cruise season there departing from Southampton, while MSC does the same from Hamburg.
In 2019 in Reykjavik, Iceland, they were delighted with their record 190,000 passengers and the arrival of the Queen Mary 2, the largest ship that had ever called at Iceland, but in 2023, they received 306,211 cruise passengers, of which almost half were embarkation passengers (148,615).
Princess Cruises was a pioneer in having circular itineraries around the British Isles, and continues to do so, but other cruise lines such as Cunard have joined them, although they combine it with Iceland.
Thus, in the UK, Invergordon stated that 2019 was an “exceptionally good” year with 180,000 passengers, but in 2023 that number soared to 221,000 passengers, a 23% increase. Edinburgh saw its passenger numbers rise from 140,000 in 2019 to 165,000 in 2023. These ports have doubled their cruise passenger arrivals in 10 years.
Similar figures are seen in Ireland, with Belfast receiving 220,000 passengers in 2023, 20% more than in 2019.
The 2026 challenge: Norway bans GHG-emitting ships in some fjords.
Norway has announced that from 2026 it will ban cruise ships that emit greenhouse gases from visiting the fjords that are a UNESCO World Heritage Site, namely Geiranger and Naeroy (the fjord that leads to Flam), the two most popular.
However, since the technology for zero-GHG emissions cruise ships does not currently exist, the final restriction is still not clearly defined.
In any case, we know that the "softest" decision would be to allow the entry of ships using certified biofuels. The problem is that there are very few ships capable of operating on bio-LNG, bio-ethanol, or bio-diesel, and those that exist—which can be counted on one hand, like the MSC Euribia—cannot operate for more than four consecutive days on this type of fuel.
This will lead to two consequences: increased traffic in other fjords, and perhaps a decrease in the number of cruise ship calls or a shortening of the cruise season in Norway. This second consequence could further boost cruises to the British Isles and Iceland.
LUIS DE CARVALHO
Commercial Director of Cruises at CMP (ports of Copenhagen, Malmö and Visby), member of the Cruise Europe board and member of the Denmark Tourism Board.
How has the cancellation of St. Petersburg cruise itineraries affected the region, and Copenhagen specifically?
For us, the North American cruise lines geared towards the general public were a very important component of our turnaround traffic and the ones that helped us reach high figures. With the cruise line embargo on St. Petersburg, these lines withdrew from the region and opted for routes from the UK to Iceland, Norway, and the British Isles, which has caused us to lose 17% of our port calls. However, some of these lines continue to call at Copenhagen, while the luxury and German cruise lines continue to invest in the Baltic without hesitation.
Although we have lost some operations as a home port, our geographical position has allowed us to maintain the number of calls, since Copenhagen receives calls not only from routes through the Baltic but also from routes towards the Norwegian Fjords, the North Coast of Europe and the North Atlantic.
We are facing this situation as both an opportunity and a challenge to reinvent ourselves, and we have largely succeeded. In 2024, for the first time in the history of the Port of Copenhagen, we will have cruises every month of the year, from January to December, because we have managed to reduce the seasonality of our port calls and even offer more overnight stays, showcasing new possibilities for the destination to cruise lines.
Between October 2024 and April 2025 (historically nonstop), we expect approximately 90,000 passengers in Copenhagen on 50 winter cruise calls, primarily from the German, British, and French markets. These passengers will also be visiting the Christmas market we organize at the terminals. In December, we also have unique calls at our port of Visby with Hapag-Lloyd and Ponant, which offer Baltic expedition cruises during the winter.
In 2025 we will inaugurate the largest Shore Power facility in Europe, serving 5 docks in Copenhagen.
Furthermore, I should add that we foresee a return to the region by major North American cruise lines in 2026 and 2027, as we already have confirmed homeport operations with them for that period. For example, Princess Cruises has cruises in 2026 that travel the entire Baltic (a 12-night, 9-port cruise that includes stops in Stockholm, Helsinki, Tallinn, Oslo, Gdansk, Visby, Ronne, Klaipeda, Riga, and Skagen). Therefore, we believe that this exceptional situation caused by the war in Ukraine is about to be reversed in the cruise tourism sector.
“WE SEE AN INCREASE IN BOOKINGS FOR US CRUISE LINES STARTING IN 2025”
Klaus Bondam, Director of Cruise Baltic
Klaus Bondam has been the director of Cruise Baltic since March 2023. He recently served as executive director of the Danish Cycling Federation. Prior to that, he had a political career as mayor of the Technology and Environment Department of the City of Copenhagen. He then continued his international career as Head of Department at the Danish Cultural Institute in Brussels, responsible for the Benelux countries.
How do you think the cancellation of St. Petersburg has affected cruise routes and deployment in the Baltic Sea?
Of course, the closure of St. Petersburg has had an impact on cruise routes and deployment in the Baltic Sea, especially in the eastern region. But we have seen a significant increase in German cruise passengers, and we are seeing an increase in bookings from US cruise lines starting in 2025 and accelerating in 2026. So the future looks brighter.
After the war began in Ukraine, one of our most important tasks was to communicate to cruise lines the safety of traveling to Northern Europe. We had to reinvent ourselves and get to the core of who we are and what the region has to offer, which resulted in our Responsible Cruising strategy and narrative: “Discovering the secrets of Northern Europe.”.
There's no single flagship port/destination like St. Petersburg; we can't replicate that. Instead, Northern Europe offers many smaller destinations and diverse, larger European capitals that work exceptionally well together to ensure every cruise stop is seamless, focused on the details, and where there's an underlying respect for everyone.
With nine different countries, nine different cultures, and ten different languages in the Baltic Sea region, we offer a rich diversity of history, art and design, architecture, and modern, sustainable living. We want to ensure that we leave lasting memories in the minds of our guests: memories of freedom, democracy, nature, sustainability, equality, and strong welfare states.
We can also, despite the weather, offer interesting experiences throughout the year in very accessible destinations, which are close to each other (good for 'slow cruises'), and in summer we offer less hot destinations that are not as crowded as many other places.
Which ports are benefiting from this situation with increased traffic?
Due to the geopolitical situation, many eastern destinations experienced a decrease in port calls in 2023, while western destinations saw increased interest. Expectations for 2024 are cautiously optimistic for the eastern part of the region.
One of the best ways to show cruise lines what the region has to offer and that our destinations are safe and very interesting to visit is by organizing valuable FAM Trips.
In February/March 2024, Cruise Baltic organized a FAM trip to four of our eastern destinations: Hamina/Kotka, Saaremaa, Turku, and Mariehamn, as well as Lysekil and Gothenburg in Sweden. This autumn, we will again take a group of cruise line representatives to visit Skagen, Riga, Klaipeda, Gdansk, and Helsinki. We are also participating in important trade shows such as Seatrade Med in Malaga in September.
In addition to the shift in focus due to the geopolitical situation, Cruise Baltic and all our destinations are also actively working to extend the season. Copenhagen recorded a record number of port calls in November and December 2023 and expects calls throughout all 12 months of 2024.
Working towards responsible navigation is in our DNA in Northern Europe
How will the new environmental restrictions imposed by Norway on cruise ships affect the entire region?
The upcoming restrictions are in the interest of the entire region, as responsible shipping is in our DNA in Northern Europe. Once the restrictions are implemented, we may see a decrease in cruise ship calls in the region within a short period.
Even so, we believe that many cruise lines are just as interested in reducing emissions and creating a more sustainable holiday offering as we are in Northern Europe. That said, most countries in the Baltic Sea region are members of the European Union (all except Norway), which means we will have to apply EU regulations regarding the future development of cruise tourism in Europe.
If Norway imposes stricter restrictions, it could increase cruise tourism in the Baltic Sea. However, sailing through the Norwegian fjords and cruising the Baltic Sea are two very different experiences.
Follow cruise news at Cruisesnews.es
