International tourist arrivals worldwide increased by 5% during the first eight months of 2014, according to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. Despite geopolitical challenges and a sluggish economic recovery, tourism demand remained strong during the Northern Hemisphere's peak season, from June to August.
Between January and August 2014, 781 million international tourists (overnight visitors) traveled the world, 36 million more than in the same period of 2013. With a 5% increase, international tourism continued to grow well above the long-term trend projected by the UNWTO for the period 2010-2020 (+3.8%). Peaks were recorded in the months of June, July, and August, which accounted for a third of the total growth for the year, and which saw a 4% increase compared to the same months of 2013.
By region, the strongest growth was recorded in the Americas (+8%), followed by Asia and the Pacific (5%) and Europe (+4%). By subregion, North America (+9%) and South Asia (+8%) performed best, followed by Southern and Mediterranean Europe, Northern Europe, Northeast Asia, and South America (all with +7%).
“International tourism continues to grow faster than expected, despite new global challenges,” said UNWTO Secretary-General Taleb Rifai. “However, increasing geopolitical uncertainties and signs of weaker and more uneven growth in the global economy demand our attention,” he added.
Commenting on the potential impact of the Ebola outbreak in East Africa on tourism, Mr. Rifai stated: "While it is premature to assess the true impact of the outbreak on the tourism sector, at present we do not anticipate it will have a significant effect on the sector globally.".
“International tourism in countries where transmission has spread (Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone) represents less than 1% of total international arrivals to African destinations. However, we must be aware that misconceptions about the disease are affecting the entire African continent. On the positive side, and according to information from African Member States and key tourism associations and operators in major source markets, there are no significant cancellations to report, despite a slight slowdown in bookings.”.
Mr. Rifai recalled that the third meeting of the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee in relation to the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, convened by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 23 October 2014, "reiterated that blanket bans on international travel and trade should not be imposed.".
"And most importantly, we must urgently increase international efforts to support affected countries in containing the outbreak, ensure that WHO recommendations are implemented, and provide transparent and timely information at all times to combat misperceptions and fear and prevent the crisis from having consequences throughout the region," he added.
The Americas led growth in 2014
The Americas (+8%) led growth during the first eight months of 2014, recovering from the weak results of the previous year. The four subregions—North America, the Caribbean, Central America, and South America—doubled their 2013 growth rates.
International arrivals to Asia and the Pacific increased by 5%, consolidating the growth of recent years, with South Asia (+8%) and Northeast Asia (+7%) leading the way, followed by Oceania (+6%). Meanwhile, arrival growth slowed in Southeast Asia (+2%), compared to the strong performance recorded in 2012 and 2013.
Europe, the world's most visited region, saw a 4% increase in international tourist arrivals during August, with strong performance in Northern, Southern, and Mediterranean Europe (both up 7%). In contrast, international tourism grew at a slower pace in Western Europe (up 3%) and stagnated in Central and Eastern Europe (down 1%).
In Africa, the number of international tourists increased by 3%, with North Africa specifically consolidating its recovery (up 4%). Arrivals in Sub-Saharan Africa also increased by 3%.
International tourist arrivals in the Middle East are estimated to have increased by 3%, although this figure should be interpreted with caution, as it is based on the limited data available for the region.
China strengthens its position as the main source market
Data on outbound travel spending for the first six to nine months of 2014 indicate that among the world's top ten source markets, the largest increase was recorded in China (+16%), although France (+10%), Italy (+8%), the United States (+6%), Brazil (+5%), and the Russian Federation (+4%) also saw significant growth. Among the top 25 source markets in terms of spending, double-digit increases were recorded in India (+31%), Norway (+22%), Sweden (+12%), Taiwan (a province of China) (+11%), and South Korea (+10%).
The year 2014 will close above expectations
For the whole of 2014, international tourist arrivals are expected to increase between 4% and 4.5%, thus slightly exceeding the UNWTO's long-term forecast, which anticipated annual growth of 3.8% for the period 2010-2020.
Although the UNWTO Confidence Index shows weaker levels due to current geopolitical and health risks, the results remain positive, with 51% of respondents viewing the September-December 2014 period as "much better or better", compared to 35% who consider it "the same" and 14% who see it as "much worse or worse".
